There's a number of ways this could go. Entire biospheres can be protected in the form of a 'Half Earth' using Indigenous Stewardship as it's main driver. We can avoid another World War, nothing is 'inevitable', though there are many reasons to be pessimistic (and some optimistic). The 'Laws of War' are being twisted of late. Professor Takahashi from Osaka is not happy (https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/1/17/gaza-will-be-the-grave-of-the-western-led-world-order). It's starting to look regional which would surely be financially unsustainable for Israel and the U.S.., especially if the next U.S. President withdraws support and leaves Israel stranded in a regional conflict... that money should be going to Zelensky. If political survival means jumping into a regional abyss with no clear victory, why bother? Why risk it? Can anyone, or AI, predict the ricochet? Then there's war superimposed on top of climate change or even climate change causing war. But let's get down to business - it's not a blog about war.
I understand that Sovereignty isn't much of an issue for climate change as Earth Systems and climate pollution aren't limited to political boundaries though getting Nations to agree on climate
agreement wording is very difficult, as observed at COP28. Even though the wording in the COP28 agreement is diluted, I believe we can almost completely 'phase out' fossil fuels with the right
incentives and disincentives and affordable, available, safe, chemically benign, efficient and potentially Carbon negative energy alternatives. Carbon from the atmosphere can be removed in the
form of biomass ('waste') to biochar with integration of the base material into the economy. Biochar is essentially a feedstock for other C based materials, eg. biochar can be used as a medium
that can be physically, chemically and biologically modified for customised applications such as WASH eg. Atmospheric Water Harvesting (AWH) and 'Regenerative Agroforestry'.
Biochar becomes Inertinite, that stores Carbon for 100 million+ years, if it meets the Inertinite Benchmark of >2% Random Reflectance. I'm predicting that biomass with higher Phytolith
content can be pyrolysed at lower temperatures (probably still above 550 Degrees Celsius in most cases) for the same Biochar Inertinite yield. Storage of Inertinite could be anywhere on the
Planet - in current and future supply chains and sinks. Carbon removed out of the atmosphere will slow down 'Climate heating' and 'Climate change' acceleration BUT we still have to stop burning
fossil fuels if one expects Carbon removal to make any significant difference to the balance of the Carbon Cycle - which is accelerating out of balance. A number of Carbon Removal Marketplaces
out there (and no doubt, more to come) may just tip the balance in favour of a sustainable Planet - money talks.
We are travelling outside the safe Earth boundaries on a number of indicators according to the 'Stockholm Resilience Institute' (https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2023-09-13-all-planetary-boundaries-mapped-out-for-the-first-time-six-of-nine-crossed.html). And that's not even drawing on the relationships between those indicators as they are presumably all inter-connected and inter-dependent. So, a more accurate system dynamics picture, holistically speaking, is probably far worse than what researchers are measuring, though difficult to measure and model. I'm worried about ocean evaporation->increased atmospheric moisture/clouds (water is a potent greenhouse gas)->increased climate heating->increased ocean evaporation etc.. There's the 'Albedo flip effect' at the poles. There's also the melting permafrost problem->methane, too, that has been underestimated in Earth system modelling. It is expected that in 2024 the average Global climate temperature increase will be above 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average at the beginning of the First Industrial Age for the first time - widely recognised as the upper 'safe climate' threshold according to the Paris Climate Summit and the many scientists that supported it (and possibly still do).
It's still a 'Climate Emergency'. Can we 'Save the Planet'? The first major Anthropocene is well underway with the 'Sixth Great Mass Extinction' event. The Planet's survival options are becoming more limited the longer Nations and people wait to do more to help as many species survive as possible. The Earth is becoming irreversibly modified by many unsustainable patterns of human-controlled resource mining, consumption and pollution. Time for a regenerative circular economy at all scales!
There will never be a perfect 'World Civilisation', or 'Globalisation', which is currently unsustainable and squeezes the rising Middle Class to consume more (I get sucked in from time to time too!). There will always be different cultures and reasons for conflict - and avoiding conflict. There will always be human suffering to some degree. Some would argue it's a part of the human condition but clearly much suffering is due to artificial physical scarcity. Maybe one of our only options left is 'sustainable adaptation' (with competition and collaboration) for survival? Back to Ancient human history with a post-structural twist perhaps? 'Ancient Brews' by Dr Pat could be a good starting point and complements the 'Permaculture', 'Regenerative Agriculture', 'Regenerative Agroforestry', 'Biochar', 'Biodynamic', 'Vegan' (manure optional) and 'Locavore' movements. Try and enjoy this life (and brews) while it lasts.
It's easy to become too academic about things and sometimes people criticise academics as being 'Out of touch with reality' but the reality is much academic research is informing possibilities of
future reality and in some cases, a future that those academics never get to see. Live your dreams.
A greener path can be beaten until we get a Zen/other state of sustainability, which begins in the mind. But - I'm a little bit biased. There is no Zen! Zen doesn't exist. Sustainability doesn't exist - or does it? Why can't sustainability exist? If it does exist, where can I find it? My first step was designing a TLUD in the mind, then building it and adding a biochar piss bucket - 'Applied Science' in action.
What will be your next step? I know what mine is...see below - very experimental!
A possible 'Earth Survival System' for 'Sustainable adaptation'. Modular, scalable, resilient, adaptable to a range of localities and existing economies. Very water efficient, especially suitable for dry climate zones eg.semi-arid or even arid (check out Geoff Lawton's 'Greening the desert'). Water will become the main issue for systems designers, appropriate technologists and 'Sustainable adaptation'. I hope I've designed a future-proofed system that can mostly cope with changes in climate and water supply.
I'm pushing the boundaries for 'Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), air filtration, food, medicine, power and conservation. Many more biochar applications exist too, which may not need BMC, eg.biochar bricks for housing and an outdoor 'Humanure' toilet. The TLUD is the centre/'kernel' of the main survival system with the Kon-Tiki 'Essential' (KTE) if establishing a more permanent system that also requires more biochar or BMC. The KTE is a proven biochar making technology with virtually no emissions if operated correctly.
I may have to use aged poultry manure (almost Vegan) for the Biochar Mineral Complex (BMC) and straw lucerne in the swales and Zai pits, both in the Permafert and for mulching. There's also a lot more research to do around the microalgae photo bioreactors. There's more information on a couple of website pages about my RAS concept.
The idea of the '2 in 1' mill and pelletiser is that only one electric engine is needed to save money and resources. Ideally the mill and the pelletiser can be used independently of each other or as a connected 2 step process.
There's also a number of other biochar 'Carbon negative' technologies that are integrated into the system too. For eg., Atmospheric Water Harvesting (AWH) kit (on another page), a 'CharGen' (on another page) for power/electricity, seedlings (BMC for seed raising mix and even potting mix for the herbs/other plants).
The list keeps growing...