It's hard to know where to start an article about change when so much is happening around the world with so much uncertainty in everyone's minds. What is clear now I believe that what was a relatively opaque global fossil energy system has now been exposed for all it's supply network fragility (stores and flows), interdependence of National economies, global inflation relationships and microeconomics, right down to consumer shortages and inflationary bill pain. The relationships between War and fossil fuel have also been observed. All of this creates a cloud of anxiety and uncertainty, though a few points are crystal clear now.
Fossil is an energy source that most of us were sold as a way of floating more boats and build modern economies. It was a house of cards that was built around one single premise - unlimited growth (as opposed to unlimited 'regrowth' - more about that later) and no consequences for the climate, other interdependent Earth systems, ecosystems and Earth stewards. The impacts of fossil energy are now being felt everywhere. Fossil has reached every narrow corner of the globe. Fossil energy failure was unthinkable - until now.
The Iran/Middle East/Strait of Hormuz conflict exposed how much fossil energy was concentrated in one small area, commonly cited as an energy 'chokepoint'. Figures vary, but approximately 20% of world fossil fuel flows pass through this strait. It was no surprise to me, in fact predicted, that if Iran was attacked the cost of fossil would go up. What I didn't predict was how critical the Strait of Hormuz was to the world economy. After a bunch of different AI searches, I learnt that most Countries were underprepared for this outcome of fuel shortages. It's IEA policy that Countries should have 3 months of strategic fossil fuel reserves. Australia had approximately 30 days of refined petroleum products, one operating refinery at Geelong, Victoria, that could refiine crude to meet 12/2025 introduced fuel Sulfur standards, i.e. until it had a large fire, and one other refinery, at Lytton, Queensland, that was in the process of installing a module to remove Sulfur from fossil fuel to also meet those standards. Between 2012-2021, five oil refineries were shut down. We were even prepared to break an embargo on Russian oil by refining it in India and purchasing the fuel. But, we're not the EU or BRICS+ though more empathy for Zelensky would have been nice. I mean, it's not like we left him for dead. Indeed, Australia was poorly prepared for the world fossil fuel shortage and it could have been sufficiently prepared under better leadership. I don't even like fossil fuels but they are a necessary evil until we can electrify logistics but I would never complain about classic cars and motorcycles. The ALP has responded and now increased the fossil fuel reserve to 50 days, which is still under target, but a welcome relief given that the Iran War could fire up again and exacerbate the fossil fuel problem. Stalemate - maybe. Maybe the players should initially remain focused on opening up the Strait of Hormuz but it seems Iran is redrawing the maritime map. The energy economic virus has already spread causing global energy and food supply emergencies. Worry about the other stuff later...?
Approximately 85% of global warming emissions are from fossil fuel related products. So, if we want to cool the global climate system, the most logical choice is to 'Phase out' fossil fuel, which could require leaving some sources alone eg.shale oil (dirty), the Arctic (risky and cynical) and the Amazon (pointless). Who wants another oil conflict zone? Avoid, reduce, replace. But replace it with what? This is where it gets interesting. There are a range of industries that rely on fossil fuels either directly or indirectly. Logistics is the main one, but there's also Nitrogen based fertilisers, using LNG as a N source, construction, plastic and even pharmaceuticals and more (fact check). So, the obvious one is to electrify logistics, but this will take a long time and needs to be affordable to majority of EV consumers. Since the war began, EV waiting lists in Oz have only increased. Biosubstitution can be used for N based fertilisers eg. manure and biochar. Hydrocarbon based plastic can be replaced with plant-based bioplastic, such as hemp bioplastic. Pharmaceuticals can also use biosubstitution with bio-based chemicals.
What is becoming clear to me is that the Iran War has a silver lining if it can accelerate the uptake of fossil fuel alternatives out of economic logic, necessity and sustainability. Could this be the changing of the energy guard? I believe it is. I've spent the last 17 years researching biochar, and at this point I'm convinced that all human 'waste' can be pyrolysed and converted to charcoal. If it's from plastic, it's known as 'plastic char. If it's from a biological 'waste' source it is known as 'biochar'. Both 'plastic char' and 'biochar' can be used either natively or in various materials and can even be post-processed to produce 'Advanced Carbon materials' for various current and future applications. Biochar production systems also produce 'waste' heat, that can be used for feedstock drying, space heating, water heating and bioelectricity via heat exchangers and coupled engines, such as Stirling engines and ORCs.
What next? I've worked out an endgame, that I call a 'Regrowth Circular Bioeconomy'. This is all possible with a transition to a plant and biologically based 'bioeconomy', that integrates all of it's 'waste' back into the economy via pyrolysis that produces biochar, which really needs a 'National Pyrolysis Strategy' (with pre-seed and seed ACRT startup funding) to accelerate this transition.
I believe biochar is the key to unlocking future sustainably adapted Civilisation.
The 'Regrowth' is abbreviated for 'regenerative growth' - basically, regenerating the resource base while developing it simultaneously eg.regen agriculture, with practically no limits/unlimited to what could be achieved considering how much work needs to be done. The 'Circular' part suggests a cascade of product and material use, eg.biochar and 'Zero' waste (by it's former definition). It could be a 'System of Systems' (SoS) where standalone circular subsystems/industries form an overall circular system. In my opinion, this economic idea doesn't rule out using minerals and elements to build materials and technology. What I call 'Appropriate Carbon Removal Technology' (ACRT), steel, for eg, is critical to build this tech, such as steel stoves and kilns that produce biochar. In Australia, we have many economic mineral deposits and are lucky to produce some 'Sovereign' steel and have reliable supply chains for importing missing minerals for other steels eg.Corten and even completed steel products eg. 304 tube from Taiwan. Ideally, we could produce all of our steel in Country but may not be possible.
The main bio-based industry I have now in mind is taking a 'biorefinery' approach to using plants. The biorefinery is basically a 'black box' that
(which produces potable water during energy storage - useful for populated areas and some Greener H2 electrolysers), grid, microgrid)
The main plant group candidate for biorefinery I believe is algae, and within that broad group, microalgae, which grows on every continent. There are microalgae species that grow in both seawater and freshwater. Australia is mostly desert, and we're surrounded by ocean so it makes sense to build a network of near-coastal desert seawater driven microalgae production sites, on marginal land, for biorefinery application. I've read research that suggests protein, bioactive compounds for pharmaceuticals, pigments, nutriceuticals, biodiesel, biohydrogen, biogas, bioelectricity and biochar and more can all be extracted from different microalgae species.
The magic trick is to find an endemic microalgae species that can be grown in seawater and refined in an industrial cascade to extract all of the desired economic products from the strain.
Economically and biologically speaking, different microalgae strains contain unique average ratios of lipids, proteins and carbohydrates. They can be cultivated in different ways to tune the desired ratio. There's also the possibility of genetic engineering, which I would consider as a last resort. In the most basic business model, lipids can be extracted for biodiesel and the 'waste' biomass pyrolysed for bioelectricity and biochar. This biochar, with 'Nitrogen self doping', is suitable for electrodes in batteries and supercapacitors. So, both EVs and utility scale batteries and supercapacitors can all benefit. There's also a microalgae biochar Carbon feedstock possibility for solid state electrolytes. Most of the above, including biorefinery, is more or less blue sky R&D, though different technical aspects and products have been commercialised. Maybe this is just a billionaire's playground, but to be honest I haven't costed (or possibly engineered) a biorefinery. I think it's all the additional capex that has sunk first movers in the past. If the pre-seed funding problem can be solved for a prototype, and VC can be raised for seed funding a commercial venture (eg. dollar for dollar from the SA State Gov), then maybe it could be multiple millions to startup - not billions. I think over time, by necessity for some products eg. biodiesel and biochar, different Governments will invest in the concept and technology in the private sector if they see true value in where this direction can lead to. In the meantime, permaculture and biochar integrated systems on the ground I believe is an excellent option, which I would like to progress growing microalgae in small scale photo bioreactors for micro economy.
Future applications. For eg., why not a 'hybrid' methanol (from Direct Ocean Capture of CO2) OR microelectrolysis of H2O for H2 (ISRU) AND Electric Vehicle (EV) (with a Sodium based 3D printed Solid State Battery using Microalgae Biochar electrodes - with 'self N doping' and Potassium permanganate (KMnO4) post-activation)?
Welcome to the 'Age of Biochar'!
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INFRASTRUCTURE
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